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Decision Analysis

According to Tom Spradlin, decision analysis is a "structured way of thinking about how the action taken in the current decision would lead to a result. In doing this, one distinguishes three features of the situation: the decision to be made, the chance and unknown events which can affect the result, and the result itself. Decision analysis then constructs models, logical and perhaps even mathematical representations of the relationships within and between these three features of the decision situation. The models then allow the decision maker to estimate the possible implications of each course of action that he might take, so that he can better understand the relationship between his actions and his objectives."

SAHealthInfo glossary defines decision analysis as "a technique used to aid decision-making under conditions of uncertainty by systematically representing and examining all of the relevant information for a decision and the uncertainty around that information. The available choices are plotted on a decision tree. At each branch, or decision node, the probabilities of each outcome that can be predicted are estimated. The relative worth or preferences of decision-makers for the various possible outcomes for a decision can also be estimated and incorporated in a decision analysis."

Riddhi Dutta is a DMReview article writes "Decision analysis provides tools for quantitatively analyzing decisions with uncertainty and/or multiple conflicting objectives. "

Decision Analysis Software
AliahTHINK!, Aliah Inc.: www.aliah.com
BestChoice3, Logic Technologies: www.logic-gem.com
Criterium Decision Plus, InfoHarvest: www.infoharvest.com
DecisionMaker, Attrasoft: attrasoft.com/decision
DPL, Applied Decision Analysis: www.adainc.com/sw/index.html

from Spradlin, T., "A Lexicon of Decision Making", DSSResources.COM, 03/05/2004.
http://www.sahealthinfo.org/evidence/d.htm
Dutta, R., "Decision Analysis A Tool to Deal with Uncertainty," DMReview, June 24, 2003, http://www.dmreview.com/article_sub.cfm?articleId=6935 .




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